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Nifty Spot Technical

Nifty bounced yesterday and made high 8429 but failed to sustain, slipped down and closed flat at 8355, again below 50 DMA. 9th July low 8323, 10th July low 8315, 28th July low 8321, 29th July low 8338, 12th August low 8337 and 13th August low 8339, bearish H&S pattern visible where neckline is 8320-25. Therefore 8337-8320 remains key support level, if breaks and sustains below 8300 then selling pressure will accelerate and if 8320 is held on closing basis then 8300-8450 range will prevail. The candle in daily chart is harami and double bottom, which is bullish but that will be confirmed only if trades above 8380 and crosses 8429.

FIIs are expressing their frustration for failure to get GST Bill passed and therefore key reforms getting stalled. Macro data improves but without reforms these will not persist. Rupee fall also is narrowing the possibility of Rate Cut. However, Rate Cut is not the only way RBI can help the Central Government. It is of extreme pleasure that RBI has paid Rs. 66K Crores to Government yesterday as Dividend, which is highest ever Dividend RBI has paid to Government, 22% higher than previous year and in huge excess of Budget Estimates. This substantial big amount will help Government meeting its Fiscal Deficit targets and boosting capital expenditure. Due to sustained fall in Crude Oil price, Government is already saving good amount of money which could lower its deficits. Therefore, stage is set for Revival and Growth but reforms like GST must come, we all hope for the same. Medium to long term story is intact - so investors should not panic and start picking quality stocks on the fall.

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